Black Friday has become marketing’s version of peer pressure. Everyone’s doing it, so you feel like you should, too. However, here’s the uncomfortable truth: participating in Black Friday might be costing you more than it’s worth.
According to Adobe Analytics, Black Friday 2024 generated $10.8 billion in online sales in the US alone. Sounds impressive. But the picture is more complicated than it looks.
Recent YouGov research shows that, while 62% of British consumers planned to participate in Black Friday 2024, this was down from 65% in 2023. Cyber Monday participation dropped even further, from 52% to 48%. Interest is declining overall, even as certain demographics remain highly engaged.
The generational divide is particularly striking in the UK. Finder research found that 86% of Gen Z (aged 18-27) intend to make a purchase during Black Friday sales, planning to spend an average of £181 each.
Compare that to just 26% of the Silent Generation and 31% of Baby Boomers, who plan to spend £34 and £50, respectively.
But here’s the uncomfortable reality: whilst Gen Z shows up in droves, they’re doing so out of necessity rather than enthusiasm.
With less disposable income than older generations, they’re using Black Friday to stretch limited budgets. Mintel’s UK research found that 52% of Black Friday shoppers reported relying on promotions more than usual due to financial concerns in 2023.
They’re not shopping for fun. They’re shopping because they have to.
The question isn’t whether Black Friday is big; it’s whether it’s a good deal. It’s whether it’s right for your business.
Running a Black Friday campaign isn’t free, even if you’re not spending on ads. There’s the time spent planning, creating content, designing graphics, managing customer service spikes, and dealing with increased returns. McKinsey reports that return rates during holiday sales events can be 30% higher than in normal periods.
Then there’s the psychological cost. You’re training customers to wait for discounts. Why would they buy at full price when they know you’ll slash prices in November?
PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook reveals another uncomfortable truth: consumers expect their seasonal spending to decline by an average of 5% from 2024. Gen Z is cutting back most sharply, planning to slash holiday budgets by 23%. This marks a sharp reversal from 2024, when Gen Z’s budgets were on the rise.
Black Friday can cheapen your brand positioning. As luxury retail analyst Thomai Serdari notes, “Luxury brands that participate in Black Friday risk diluting the very exclusivity that justifies their premium pricing.”
Nothing damages your reputation faster than a website that crashes, customer service that disappears, or orders that arrive in January. Worth noting: YouGov found that 69% of Black Friday participants plan to shop online, so your digital infrastructure needs to be solid.
Multiple studies show that Gen Z and Millennials are the most active Black Friday shoppers, with 91% making purchases during the event. If your customer base skews older or more affluent, the returns might not justify the effort.
If you have the cushion to discount and still make a profit, Black Friday can boost year-end revenue. Drive Research found that 16% of shoppers begin on Thanksgiving afternoon, with another 18% starting later that evening.
It’s better to move stock at a discount than to write it off completely. The British Retail Consortium found that retailers use Black Friday specifically to clear their seasonal stock before the end of the year.
Work backwards from your desired profit. If you’re offering 25% off, can you still make a profit after accounting for Stripe fees, shipping, and customer service costs? Run the actual calculations before you commit. Research shows that shoppers expect discounts of 16-25% for items under £50, but 41% or more for expensive items over £200.
You don’t have to discount everything. Protect your best-sellers or newest products. Limit quantities. Create exclusive bundles rather than straight discounts. Studies from the Journal of Marketing Research show that scarcity tactics can actually increase perceived value, even during sales events.
Impact research found that 32% of shoppers plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later services during the holiday season, with Gen Z and Millennials driving much of this growth. Ensure that your payment options align with how your target demographic prefers to shop.
What happens on December 1st? How will you rebuild full-price value? You need a strategy for transitioning customers from discount hunters to loyal advocates.
If your website can’t handle 10 times normal traffic, don’t drive 10 times normal traffic to it. Statistics indicate that 71% of online Black Friday sales in 2024 originated from mobile devices. Your mobile experience needs to be flawless.
What if you didn’t do Black Friday at all? What if you ran an anti-Black Friday campaign instead?
Several brands have led the way here, including REI and Patagonia.
You could offer extended payment terms instead of discounts. Run a “Support Small Businesses” campaign. Donate a percentage of full-price sales to charity. Host educational content instead of promotional content.
The point is you have options beyond blindly following what everyone else does.
Black Friday isn’t inherently good or bad for your business. It’s a tool. Like any tool, it works brilliantly in some situations and causes damage in others.
The data tells us a nuanced story. Overall participation rates are dropping slightly, but certain demographics (Gen Z and Millennials) remain highly engaged. However, they’re also cutting back on spending and looking for maximum value.
You’re not just competing for attention. You’re competing for a smaller piece of a more cautious consumer’s budget.
Before you jump in, ask yourself the right questions.
If the answers make you uncomfortable, you have permission to sit it out. Your competitors might be making noise, but noise doesn’t always equal profit.
Sometimes the smartest marketing decision is knowing when not to participate.
